Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
That’s the question you have to ask yourself, given Aeliana (NZ) (Castelvecchio) smashed her rivals in the G1 ATC Derby, running fast time with her late splits showing she wasn’t slowing down. Her 5l demolition job would suggest perhaps Treasurethe Moment (Alabama Express) has dodged a bullet, as I highly doubt she would’ve beaten Aeliana on Saturday.
We’ll know more this weekend when Day 2 of The Championships features the G1 ATC Oaks, where Treasurethe Moment is the odds-on favourite. She won Tuesday’s G1 Vinery Stud Stakes at Rosehill, which was run at a fast tempo, paving the way for this Victorian filly to beat G1 standard by 2l.
Looking at some historical data, I’d be surprised if Aeliana didn’t run Top 3 in the Caulfield Cup, based on what she’s done so far. You have to remember, Saturday was her first go beyond 2000 metres and she’d only ever run over 2000 metres once in her life. This filly has all the makings of a superstar stayer.
Stefi Magnetica's Doncaster win and Belle Detelle's effort
On the contrary, the Doncaster Mile, won by Stefi Magnetica (All Too Hard) didn’t excite the clock much. They went through the first 1000 metres 4l below standard, setting the time-honoured event up for a horse with a sharp turn of foot. And so, last year’s Stradbroke Handicap winner had the right ammunition to take down the race.
Off a soft tempo, her last 600 metres was just 3.5l above benchmark and ranked only 23rd for the meeting. Belle Detelle (Zed {NZ}) was quicker over her final 600 metres and she ran in a G3 Adrian Knox over 2000 metres, restricted to 3-year-old fillies.
That said, Belle Detelle is one of the horses to follow from the meeting. She was smashed in betting from $15 into $5, before staving off favourite Polymnia (Dundeel {NZ}). Her last 400 metres was almost 7l above standard and ranked 4th for the entire meeting. This is the perfect race shape to back up from, but knowing Waller, he’ll be patient and wait for Queensland, where she looks a good thing even this far out.
2-year-old performances and key races reviewed
I can’t bag this crop of 2-year-olds much more, but again we saw how below par they are in the Kindergarten Stakes. North England (Farnan) sat second in a race where they went through the first 500 metres close to 4l below standard, yet could only manage to come home a fraction better than average.
The G1 Sires Produce rated well overall, with Vinrock (I Am Invincible) just over 1l above standard for his victory. The race played into his hands, with a fast tempo suiting the only runner that raced at 1400 metres. He also got an economical run, unlike Wodeton (Wootton Bassett {GB}).
The jeers directed at Ryan Moore, who got caught wide on Wodeton, are coming from uneducated punters who clearly haven't done their homework. The 1400 metres start point at Randwick is the trickiest, and Wodeton drew the outside. Moore had two options: one was to go back to last and risk giving Vinrock a 6l to 8l head start at the 600 metres, or push on hope he could slot in.
He chose the latter, and it didn’t work. For mine, he made the right choice because this was his only chance of winning.
She's Got Pizzazz (Zoustar) ran fast time in the G3 PJ Bell Stakes, and the runner-up from that race, Flying For Fun (Spieth {NZ}), looks a versatile type and is one for your blackbook after reeling off the 5th fastest last 600 metres for the day.
Nepotism and Lekvarte shine at Rosehill
Last Tuesday at Rosehill we had the rescheduled Tancred Stakes meeting. Nepotism (Brutal {NZ}) won a slowly run Baillieu, clocking the best last 400/200 metres of the race. He looks to be the one for the Champagne Stakes, but we’ll need to check the tempo for the final G1 2-year-ol race of the autumn, as there’s a few that might grow wings on a fast tempo.
Lekvarte (NZ) (Reliable Man {GB}) took out the G2 Emancipation Stakes, clocking the 4th best last 400 metres of the meeting, indicating this evergreen mare is on song for another strong campaign. She might’ve finished last in a field of 12 first-up, but the race won by Commemorative (I Am Invincible) rated very well, and Lekvarte now takes her second-up record to four from eight. She looks an ideal Queensland contender in and around the mile distance.
Soft Love impresses with fastest final
Heading down to Melbourne for last Saturday’s Caulfield meeting, and there’s just one horse to follow. And you should seriously follow this one because she looks incredibly smart.
Her name is Soft Love (Pierata), and she clocked the fastest last 600 metres of the day at just her third start. Not only did she maintain her unbeaten record, coming from a Bendigo BM64 to winning a 3-year-old Open in town but she also beat standard time by more than 1l. Her last 200 metres in a slick 10.96 suggests she could’ve gone at least 2l faster.
She looks like a Group horse, and if they take her to Queensland, she would be my early Stradbroke Handicap tip.
