Cover image courtesy of Sportpix
Tempted (Street Boss {USA}) announced herself as the horse to beat in the 2025 G1 Golden Slipper Stakes with a resounding win at Randwick on Saturday.
That said, her rating would normally see her a fringe player - but such is the spread of winners (perhaps a lack of depth) in this year’s 2-year-old ranks, a mere 87 rating on my database might actually win a Slipper this season.
Wodeton and the challenge of rating juveniles
Wodeton (Wootton Bassett {GB}) rated 90 when he made his debut but the figure came with a substantial bonus for the dawdling tempo. A bonus that now perhaps is not warranted. He ran a blistering last 400-metre, not a fast overall time and here lies the age-old task that faces ratings experts when assessing young horses...
If an older horse previously reached a rating of 90 but runs to an 82 due to a slow early tempo, you can confidently adjust its rating by up to 8l—provided its late splits indicate it has run to its true ability compared to the daily averages.
But when you’re bonusing 2-year-olds on debut, you have no guide on its ceiling therefore might be bonusing a juvenile that has a sensational 400-metre dash - but nothing else. Clearly, we weren’t the only ratings outfit to bonus Wodeton, as the colt was smashed from $2.30 into $1.80 last weekend. He’s starting to look a bit like the trial/jumpout stars; magnificent when they’re able to utilise their speed in a soft run trial, but that becomes difficult when tested under the race conditions.
Reisling vs. Todman: comparing the times
Back to the times of the Reisling (won by Tempted) vs Todman (won by Tentyris)-Tempted clocked 1.08:28 versus Tentyris (Street Boss {USA}), 1.08:68, which means the filly has gone around 3.5l faster overall. At the 400-metre she had a 3l lead on the colt and he could only manage to shave that margin down by 0.5l.
Tentyris beat Wodeton, who was the best around going into the race, and Tempted has beaten Tentyris on the clock, then surely the filly should be the Slipper favourite and not the $8 pop she currently is?
I think Rivellino (Too Darn Hot {GB}) should be shorter than the $13 out there as well. He’s been tricky to rate, as like Wodeton, has sprinted home in slowly run races but he’s won at 1200m.
Other standout performances at Randwick
Jedibeel (NZ) (Savabeel) beat Kimochi (Brave Smash {JPN}) in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) beating standard time by 5l and clocked the best last 600m and 400m of the day. The runner-up might be the one to follow though as she is already a Group 1 winner at 1400m and surely the TJ Smith Stakes beckons? I’ve had a nibble at the $26 there.
Randwick Guineas disappointment and future prospects
Thought the Randwick Guineas was weak on sectionals. I expected more from this field but off a fast tempo, they struggled to beat the standard. Linebacker (NZ) (Super Seth) relished the fast pace as he had the extra run under the belt.
Perhaps his rivals weren’t ready for that test at this stage of their respective preps?
The filly, Aeliana (NZ) (Castelvecchio), was set to dodge the boys next start and run in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes, but she might be better off taking on the boys again in the Rosehill Guineas ($17 there just quietly) otherwise she will have to beat Treasurethe Moment (Alabama Express) in the Vinery.
Perhaps that’s unlikely given what we saw at Flemington on Saturday.
Matt Laurie’s filly smashed standard time by 8l in the G2 Kewney Stakes (1600m) in what was the win of the day anywhere in the country. Her winning time was 9l faster than the All Star Mile, albeit the latter took 6l off in the home straight after a much slower tempo.
Joliestar and Headwall shine in the Newmarket Handicap
Joliestar (Zoustar) landed some big bets winning the G1 Newmarket Handicap in standard time. She clocked a slick 32.86 for her final 600m which is more than 3l above standard.
If they bring runner-up Headwall (Dream Ahead {USA}) back a peg then he can nail one of these big races. Headwall was the only horse to finish quicker than Joliestar in the straight sprint.
Vinrock’s strong showing in the Sires’ Produce
Vinrock (I Am Invincible) led at a fast tempo in the G2 Sires Produce Stakes (1400m), yet still clocked the second fastest last 200-metre of the race. He’s now won both starts by an aggregate margin of 5.2l and will win plenty more with this type of racing pattern.
Mystic Reign’s unbeaten streak and future potential
Mystic Reign (Toronado {Ire}) led all the way to win the opener at Flemington. She set a genuine tempo but failed to beat standard time and although she’s now unbeaten in three runs, she might need more time before tackling tougher races. She’s done a lot in her first prep and could easily elevate to a new level next time in.
