Does early success equate to long term sire success?

Cover image courtesy of Newgate

In the last decade, five stallions have won the Champion Australian Sire title; I Am Invincible (3), Written Tycoon, Snitzel (4), Street Cry (Ire), and Fastnet Rock. Of those, only I Am Invincible and Written Tycoon won champion First Season Sire. Both Snitzel and Fastnet Rock came second in their respective years, while Street Cry didn’t get his first Southern Hemisphere stakes winner until his first crop turned three.

Newgate Farm’s champions

Of the last four Champion First Season Sires, two have stood at Newgate Farm, being Russian Revolution and Extreme Choice, while Tassort came second last year to Too Darn Hot (GB).

“Clearly if you are the Champion First Season sire, you’re a lot better chance of being the real deal,” said Newgate Farm’s Henry Field.

“Extreme Choice is one of the most special stallions on the planet. He’s done it with virtually no opportunity. Russian Revolution was both Champion First Season and Champion Second Season sire.

“It’s interesting with him as his book of mares was a lot weaker in his third season at stud, then his racing results were awesome and he got a lift with his mare quality in his fifth book onwards.

“You’re a lot better chance of making the grade long term if you feature early.”

Extreme Choice won Champion First Season sire thanks to siring G1 Golden Slipper winner Stay Inside and Group 2 winner Tiger Of Malay with his first crop of juveniles. This crop now also features Group 1 winner Espiona, Group winners Extremely Lucky, Extreme Warrior, and three Listed winners.

“He might not ever be Australian Champion Sire due to his low numbers, but he’s the best by every other metric. He has four stallions at stud, with three of them Group 1 winners, from around 100 runners. He’s clearly considered to be one of the best of all time, and is only the second horse in the history to have sired a Golden Slipper winner and a Melbourne Cup winner, and he’s done this with less than 100 runners.”

As it stands on December 12, 2024, Extreme Choice has 106 runners for 13 individual stakes winners who have won 24 stakes races between them.

“If Russian Revolution had had the same quality of mares in years three and four as in years one and two, then he’d be doing better now. His mare quality has lifted and we are confident he’ll have a massive resurgence.”

His current yearlings will be his fifth crop, and Russian Revolution has 18 stakes winners from 303 runners. “He would be the smartest option for yearling buyers this season as his mare quality is higher but he’ll be competitive value in the market.”

The last decade of winners

Of the last 10 Champion First Season sires, Hinchinbrook, Pierro, Zoustar, and Russian Revolution also won Champion Second Season sire.

Table: Champion First Season sires by season

“You don’t have to feature as a first season sire to be an elite sire, look at Encosta De Lago, Fastnet Rock, Savabeel, So You think, and High Chaparral. There’s plenty of stallions that come out with their 3-year-olds, like Zabeel in particular was finished commercially until he got his first three and 4-year-olds,” said Coolmore Stud’s Colm Santry.

“There are an awful lot of leading sires who came alive when they started knocking out a lot of good 3-year-olds. For me, personally, it’s more important that you are the leading second season sire than the first, for long term stallion success. Horses who can win the bigger 3-year-old races are the marker of success, and you need to sire high class 3-year-olds to be a top stallion.”

It's an interesting point, as I Am Invincible only sired his first juvenile Group 1 winner last season with Move To Strike.

“Opportunity is everything in this game. The sires who get large numbers thrive, and there’s a lot of evidence that numbers and quality influence these lists dramatically.”

“Pierro, and Zoustar are knocking on the door to be champions long term from that list. Pride Of Dubai has had a big season too. The thing is they all emerged on the scene with their 3-year-olds and have cemented themselves as leading sires.”

Table: Champion First, Second and Third Season sires by season

Pierro has 38 stakes winners of 73 stakes races, and he had six Group 1 winners including top 3-year-olds G1 Spring Champion S. and G1 Randwick Guineas winner Shadow Hero, G1 Australian Derby winner Levendi, and G1 Victoria Oaks winner Pinot.

Zoustar has 59 stakes winners, 13 in his first crop, and his nine Group 1 winners include Champion 3YO Filly Sunlight, G1 Thousand Guineas winner Joliestar, and G1 Coolmore Stud S. winner Ozzmosis.

“Pride Of Dubai has been highly very sought after this year with owner breeders and commercial breeders who recognise that he represents great value. The market is fickle and isn’t always right. It doesn’t get it right all the time, and horses like Pride Of Dubai and So You Think and Pierro aren’t always seen as hot by the market.”

Pride Of Dubai served over 140 mares in each of his first five seasons at stud, then dropped only 30 and 54 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but with Bella Nipotina, Deny Knowledge (Ire), and Pride Of Jenni all flying his flag this season and last, he covered 102 mares in 2023. The son of Street Cry (Ire) has 23 stakes winners and his other Group 1 winners are Dubai Honour (Ire) and Desert Lightning (NZ).

A self-fulfilling prophecy?

“Of the names on those lists, the majority have gone on to be important stallions, even if they didn’t win a major title, there are some great names on that list,” said Field.

Given that these lists probably influence the commercial market as well as give an indication of long term success, how much effort do stud masters put into that first book of mares?

“At the end of the day, when they retire to stud, most horses will cover their best book in year one,” said Field. “They are commercially exciting and you usually get more mares than you can take, so as a stud master, you can pick and choose the quality of mare to some degree. Extreme Choice was very unique as the average value of the mares he bred was miniscule.”

But does winning the title make a difference? “Yes. Russian Revolution got his best book after he was Champion First Season sire, in contrast to the rather ordinary books he served in years three and four.

“Very few stallions in the world are so extraordinary that mare quality doesn’t matter. A few like Northern Dancer, Extreme Choice, Redoute’s Choice, but that’s what makes them different to other leading sires.”

How to determine a leading sire?

Looking at the idea of leading sires from the other angle, how do you determine a leading sire outside of winning an Australian Champion Sire title. In the last 10 seasons, there have been 28 individual stallions who’ve taken up the 100 spots created by the top 10 in 10 years, and Snitzel is the only sire in the last 10 years who has been in the top 10 of the Australian Champion Sire list every year. Snitzel came second to Stratum on the First Season Sire list of 2009/10.

Written Tycoon has featured in the top 10 for nine of the last 10 seasons, and readers would be hard-pressed to argue that any horse of these 28 were not a leading sire across the entirety of their careers.

Table: Stallions by their number of years featured in the Top 10 Sires list

Perhaps it’s not the winning of the title that matters, but that most leading sires were there or there-abouts in those first few years at stud. Some, like Pride Of Dubai, took a while to find their feet, but that reflects the journey of his sire too.

Generally, it looks like the market is correct in paying attention to these lists.