Cover image courtesy of Western Racepix
Stroyville (Overshare) was the only winner to use a lane wider than 10 at Ascot on Saturday when she took out the G2 WA Guineas (1600 metres) in a thrilling finish.
The filly, ridden by William Pike, stormed down the centre of the course in lane 12 beating the class benchmark by 1l and recording the 16th fastest last 200 metres at the meeting. When you consider the lead speed of the Guineas was more than 8l faster than Group 2 average, this was quite some feat.
Eight of the nine winners were in lanes two to nine. The sweet spot was “through the middle” as identified by Trackwalkers prior to the meeting beginning.
Storyville’s winning time of 1:35.16 was only marginally slower than Port Lockroy’s (Better Than Ready) 1:34.92, winner of the G1 Railway S.
If you froze the vision at the 600 metres, Storyville would’ve been 0.5l ahead of Port Lockroy meaning the latter has only been able to find 1.7l over the final three furlongs. Now factor this in. Storyville is a 3-year-old filly that carried 55kg while Port Lockroy is a 4-year-old entire with 53kg on his back. Under weight-for age he would normally be giving her 9kg.
At 1600 metres, I typically say 1.5kg equals 1l. That would mean Storyville gets a 6l boost if they meet under WFA conditions. Of course, it's not always so black and white and these calculations are merely a guide. But a 6l boost lands the filly about 5l in front and that’s a sizeable margin. It would take a few variables to work against her for that margin to completely dwindle down. Port Lockroy won’t push on to the G1 Northerly S. (1800 metres) on December 7 but some of the horses behind him on Saturday will. I couldn’t back any of them to beat Storyville off Saturday’s figures.
Gallery: Images courtesy of Western Racepix
Earlier in the day, Fast Flicker (A Lot {USA}), made it eight wins from 16 starts when she took out a BM72 event. There were 3 x 1400-metre races on the day including a Listed event yet the BM72 produced the best figures. Not only did she record the fastest overall time but the mare’s last 600 metres was more than 5l quicker than BM indicating she is well beyond this grade. Own The Queen (Awesome Rock) charged home for second after being held up along the rail. She reeled off the best last 600 metres, 400 metres and 200 metres of the day. The 4-year-old made it all the way to the WA Derby last season and looks set for a big summer campaign given she was first-up off 224 days on Saturday.
Cranbourne favours forward runners
Wings Of Song (Mendelssohn {USA}) won well first-up in the Rosemont Stud Pendant (1400 metres) at Cranbourne. Another who contested classics during her 3-year-old season, Wings Of Song recorded the best last 1200 metres of the day winning first-up here. Her overall time was marginally better than average but it must be said she was aided by a rails-hugging ride before getting the perfect gap at the top of the straight to extricate to the outside.
Six of the 10 winners at Cranbourne were in lanes one to three and we had four leaders win. That added merit to the performance of Don't Hope Do (So You Think {NZ}) in Race 4. She settled well back in her 1000-metre contest and ripped out the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 metres of the day but had to settle for third. It was a good day to be forward of midfield. That pattern suited Oh Too Good (All Too Hard), who was allowed to settle second on a soft tempo before winning the final event at $1.40. Figures suggest this was a flat run after a gut-buster the run before. Expect her to bounce out of this well.
Kaluakoi (Zoustar) was allowed the crawl through the first 1400 metres of his 2025-metre contest for 3-year-olds at Open level. Blake Shinn partnered the Danny O’Brien-trained galloper and they went nearly 17l slower than the BM84 over the same trip. Billy Egan on runner-up Papal Army (NZ) (US Navy Flag {USA}) might regret handing up the lead. For Kaluakoi, its now two wins from his last three starts and the middle run at The Valley was queried by stewards, who told the jockey to “use more vigour”.
Kaluakoi winning the Hertz Robin Daley Classic at Cranbourne | Image courtesy of Racing Photos
Finally, there’s a progressive mare at Tom Dabernig’s joint that’s worth watching. Her name is Cleo Cat (American Pharoah {USA}) and she’s now unbeaten after four runs following her narrow victory in a BM70 at The Valley on Friday night. She beat the class benchmark by 3l clocking the second fastest last 1000 metres of the night.
Weighty task ahead for Jasmin Rouge
Last week we gave a wrap to Jasmin Rouge (Dundeel {NZ}) after he fast win at Caulfield at her second career start. Clinton McDonald’s filly is likely to run in the Listed Twilight Glow S. (1400 metres) at Caulfield on Saturday. She’s sat off two even tempos and been strong through the line over 1000 metres and 1200 metres but perhaps her biggest challenge comes in the form of the weight scale. Jasmin Rouge will carry 58.5kg under the set weights and penalties scale and it's been 20 years since a filly carried the penalty to win this race.
Jasmin Rouge | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Good luck!
