Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Brew (NZ) (Sir Tristram {Ire}) who won the G1 Melbourne Cup in 2000 is the oldest living Melbourne Cup winner, and in the 24 runnings of the Cup since then, only three horses didn’t have their leadup race in Australia. Those three just happen to have been in the last seven years, so what are the chances that one of the five horses in quarantine who have yet to run in Australia can add to that record?
Yet to race in Australia
There are only five horses in the current G1 Melbourne Cup nominations list of 55 horses who have yet to race in Australia. Of those, Aidan O’Brien-trained unbeaten Jan Brueghel (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) is the most exciting prospect, and he’s currently fifth in the G1 Melbourne Cup order. O’Brien has had 17 runners in the Cup and his last one was Tiger Moth (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) who ran second in 2020, also as a Northern Hemisphere 3-year-old.
“He travelled over great, exercised on the track yesterday and again this morning. He’s eating and drinking, and we couldn’t be happier,” travelling foreman Kieran Murphy told the Victoria Racing Club on October 14.
“He’s actually quite a young horse still, he’s only had the four runs, so everything is new to him. He’s obviously observing everything and taking it in, which is good. The way he won the (St) Leger at Doncaster last time, he seemed to get the trip very well, and we’d be hoping he can go that bit further, the extra two furlongs (400 metres). Aidan feels that he’s an improving horse.”
If he wins, he’ll be the first unbeaten horse to win the Cup since Martini Henry (NZ) (Musket {GB}) in 1883. He comes to the Cup off a last start win in the G1 English St Leger, a race that has produced one other Cup winner as a lead up race. Rekindling (GB) (High Chaparral {Ire}) ran fourth in the G1 English St Leger before winning the G1 Melbourne Cup, and the parallels don’t stop there as Rekindling was also a Northern Hemisphere-bred 3-year-old.
In sixth in the order is experienced traveller Vauban (Fr) (Galiway {GB}) who comes to contest his second Cup. Trained by Willie Mullins, he ran second in the G1 Irish St Leger, a race that Twilight Payment (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) ran third in before winning the 2020 Melbourne Cup. Vauban ran 14th in 2023 coming into the Cup off a last start win in the G3 Ballyroan S.
Vauban (Fr) | Image courtesy of Naas Racecourse
“We had a different program for the summer and raced him all the way through, reckoning that I would have to bring him down here and just freshen him up and give him a blow out for the Cup,” Mullins told racenet.com.au on Wednesday.
“I was easy on him last year thinking I would get him down here and get him ready down here. I didn't see any benefit from it, especially on race day, as he'd been away from home far too long. We've decided to completely change tactics this year, hopefully it will work.”
“I was easy on him (Vauban) last year thinking I would get him down here and get him ready down here. I didn't see any benefit from it, especially on race day... We've decided to completely change tactics this year, hopefully it will work.” - Willie Mullins
Vauban’s stablemate Absurde (Fr) (Fastnet Rock) is currently 19th in the G1 Melbourne Cup order and comes into this off a last start Listed win over 2900 metres in Ireland in August. He ran seventh in the 2023 G1 Melbourne Cup.
“I think he's in the right place as well,” Mullins said. “I'm much happier with him this year because he seems more mature in his mind, watching him on the gallops this morning. He's doing things of his own volition these days, so I'm really happy with him.”
The other two are unlikely to get a start in the Cup unless they run in Australia first. Kinesiology (GB) (Study Of Man {Ire}) is 42nd in the order, and Sea King (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) is sitting at 52 of the 55 horses.
Which lead up races have the form?
If only three horses in the last 24 years have won the Cup without running in Australia first, what are the lead up races here that have produced the most recent Cup winners?
| Caulfield Cup | 6 |
| Cox Plate | 6 |
| Geelong Cup | 3 |
| Archer | 2 |
| Bart Cummings | 1 |
| Herbert Power | 1 |
| Irish St Leger | 1 |
| LKS McKinnon S. | 1 |
| Moonee Valley Cup | 1 |
| UK St Leger | 1 |
| York Great Voltigeur S. | 1 |
| Total | 24 |
Table: Success of lead-up races in the G1 Melbourne Cup
Both the G1 Caulfield Cup and the G1 Cox Plate are the standout lead up races with six winners coming from each in the last 24 years – collectively these two races make up half of the recent winners of the G1 Melbourne Cup. However, the two races have quite a difference in the form lines, with all the six winners coming through the Caulfield Cup having run fourth or better, while those six Melbourne Cup winners who came through the Cox Plate have very mixed form.
| 2023 | Without A Fight (IRE) 2017 | Caulfield Cup | 1 |
| 2019 | Vow And Declare (AUS) 2015 | Caulfield Cup | 2 |
| 2006 | Delta Blues (JPN) 2001 | Caulfield Cup | 3 |
| 2004 | Makybe Diva (GB) 1999 | Caulfield Cup | 2 |
| 2003 | Makybe Diva (GB) 1999 | Caulfield Cup | 4 |
| 2001 | Ethereal (NZ) 1997 | Caulfield Cup | 1 |
| 2022 | Gold Trip (FR) 2017 | Cox Plate | 9 |
| 2021 | Verry Elleegant (NZ) 2015 | Cox Plate | 3 |
| 2013 | Fiorente (IRE) 2008 | Cox Plate | 3 |
| 2012 | Green Moon (IRE) 2007 | Cox Plate | 7 |
| 2007 | Efficient (NZ) 2003 | Cox Plate | 9 |
| 2005 | Makybe Diva (GB) 1999 | Cox Plate | 1 |
Table: Winners of the G1 Melbourne Cup whose lead up run was in the G1 Caulfield Cup or G1 Cox Plate
With the 2024 Caulfield Cup run and won, the winner Duke De Sessa (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) isn’t in the G1 Melbourne Cup, leaving second, third and fourth to come into the Cup with the type of form that has worked in the past. Punters should pay attention to Buckaroo (GB) (Fastnet Rock), Land Legend (Fr) (Galileo {Ire}) and Zardozi (Kingman {GB}), if history is any indication.
The 2024 G1 Cox Plate is due to run on Saturday, and with nine runners, only Kovalica (NZ) (Ocean Park {NZ}) and Royal Patronage (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) are also entered for the G1 Melbourne Cup. Kovalica is already in the Cup field being 14th in the order, while Royal Patronage is currently 44th in the order.
Kovalica (NZ) | Image courtesy of Michael McInally
Where have they been bred?
Looking at the birth nations of G1 Melbourne Cup winners since Brew gives a two-thirds/one-third split between hemispheres, with Northern Hemisphere-born horses taking out 16 of the last 24 Cups.
However, by individual nations, New Zealand is tied for first with Britain. New Zealand’s most recent winner was Verry Elleegant (NZ) (Zed {NZ}) in 2021 and Australia’s most recent is Vow And Declare (Declaration Of War {USA}) in 2019.
| GB | 5 |
| NZ | 5 |
| IRE | 4 |
| AUS | 3 |
| FR | 2 |
| GER | 2 |
| USA | 2 |
| JPN | 1 |
| Total | 24 |
Table: Birth country of the previous 24 G1 Melbourne Cup winners
Monsun and Teofilo have the most individual winners
Darley’s Teofilo (Ire) has sired three of the last six winners of the Melbourne Cup with Without A Fight (Ire), Twilight Payment (Ire), and Cross Counter (GB). He shuttled to Australia sporadically, serving mares here in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016 and 2017.
Teofilo (Ire) | Standing at Kildangan Stud Ireland
“Unstoppable source of toughness, durability and quality, with four more Group 1 wins in 2023, led by his third G1 Melbourne Cup in six years. He’s also established a speed heritage through his grandson Havana Grey. The 11-Up Club: the only active stallion with a Group 1 winner in every one of his first 11 crops, joining Shamardal, Deep Impact, AP Indy, Mr Prospector, and his sire and grandsire, Galileo and Sadler’s Wells,” says the Darley website.
In 2024, Bjorn Baker-trained Algeron comes in at 22 in the Cup order having won the G2 Brisbane Cup over the winter. “He's been a fantastic horse since Bjorn bought him relatively inexpensively,” Jim Clarke told racenet.com.au after his Brisbane Cup win in June.
“(The Melbourne Cup) It'd be a great story — an online purchase and one that could get to a Melbourne Cup after a wind operation. Bjorn has had very good luck with that.”
Monsun (Ger) also has three winners who are also clustered together from 2013 to 2016, being Fiorente (Ire), Protectionist (Ger) and Almandin (Ger). Desert King (Ire) has sired three Cup wins, thanks to triple winner Makybe Diva (GB), while all other stallions have one win each.
