Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Dubbed the “stallion-making race” the 2024 edition of the Caulfield Guineas was marred by controversy that simply isn’t justified.
If you spend time on Twitter, or X as they call it now, you’d think the Caulfield track had been substituted for Wentworth Park such was the vitriol hurled at one of Melbourne’s premium courses.
When Pivate Life (Written Tycoon) led all the way to win the Guineas while odds-on favourite, Broadsiding (Too Darn Hot {GB}), laboured into fourth, Twitter cried track bias tears and labelled James McDonald’s ride on Broadsiding as poor for allowing his mount to be positioned too far off a slow tempo.
Yet again we are reminded of why journalists should be qualified. Tertiary education will teach you facts are required in any story of substance. The colloquial “citizen journalism” that is rapidly embarking our community appears to spare facts in a desperate bid to be the first person to comment.
The fact is the Caulfield Guineas was run faster than usual. Private Life went through the first 1000 metres 2.2l quicker than your average Guineas. He then came home his last 600 metres 3.6l slower than the Group 1 average meaning his overall winning time of 1.36:76 was just over 1l slower than Guineas average.
Broadsiding’s last 200 metres was the best of the race but still only ranked 48th for the day. He rated about 3l down on his Golden Rose win. My guess is he went flat off a big first-up win. The other two possibilities are he didn’t let down on a firm deck or he’s already too dour for the mile.
On J-Mac’s ride… Broadsiding began slowly and half copped a squeeze. If you watch the overhead vision, you can clearly see the horse is last after about 60 metres. It is at this point that McDonald sees some room back to the rail and manoeuvres the colt in that direction.
Tempo tells the tale
With respect to the track. Three leaders won on a 10-race card. Five of the 10 races were won by horses settling in the first four, which means half the races were won by horses outside the top four in running.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Despite what many called as a leader-dominated day, only two races were run at a tempo faster than even (Guineas + Might And Power). Ironically, both of them were won by the leader – Private Life and Deny Knowledge (Ire) (Pride Of Dubai). In fact, the three fastest run races at Caulfield on Saturday were won by the leader with Grinzinger Belle (NZ) (Shamexpress {NZ}) the other.
And while we’re at it, two of the three slowest run races were won by horses settling fifth (Extreme Virtue {Extreme Choice}) and seventh (Bellastrix Star {Star Witness}). With respect to the facts, it appears that it was harder to make ground in fast run races than slowly run affairs. This is quite common on Good 3 surfaces.
Speaking of Bellatrix Star, the filly is really progressing well. Off a dawdling tempo, she’s recorded a scintillating 21.68s between the 600 metres and 200 metres to beat the class benchmark by just over 1l. That 400-metre dash she showed was by far the quickest of the day. She also clocked the best last 800 metres and 600 metres of the meeting. She should be close to favourite for the Coolmore Stud S. but is still double figures.
Before we head up to Sydney, we have to mention Aviatress (Smart Missile), who produced the best speed rating of the day (we’ll go into speed ratings later down the track in this article). Her overall time of 1.09:2 is 3.4l faster than benchmark for the class, which alone suggests she is better than Group 3 mares company. Then you factor in her last 600 metres was 9l faster than average and she earns herself a healthy bonus to suggest she might be up to Group 2 company against the boys. Out of the same race, Yellow Sam (Ready For Victory) is worth blackbooking. Our data suggests the race shape was horribly against, and we might get a price next start.
Switzerland sizzles while Pharari Flashes stakes potential
Switzerland (Snitzel) won the G2 Roman Consul S. in 1.09:16, which was 0.20s faster than Olentia’s (Zoustar) 1200-metre victory in The Nivison and 2.1l faster than benchmark for 3-year-old Group 2 races over 1200 metres. His last 200 metres in 11.08s was slick and it ranked fifth for the day. Coleman (Pierata) had to settle for second, but connections will be pleased he clocked the fastest last 1000 metres of the day. Olentia made it four from five first-up when she took out her Group 2 contest.
El Castello (Castelvecchio) ran bang on average time for the G3 Gloaming S. (1800 metres). He produced flat sectionals, which is a sign he may improve more over a longer trip. The Victoria Derby is not out of the question.
Last but not least, Pharari (American Pharoah {USA}) smashed the clock in the BM78 closer at Rosehill. Her 21.68s and 10.94s sectionals were the quickest last 400 metres and 200 metres of the day. Her overall time was nearly 4l faster the benchmark for the grade and she looks destined for stakes racing soon.
