The importance of the Classic season to stallion success

Cover image courtesy of Arrowfield Stud

To paraphrase Tesio, the definition of the Thoroughbred is the Derby. In Australia, the modern Thoroughbred isn’t so much about the Derby, but it is still about the Classic season. We define success by the 3-year-old season, and we only need look at the five hottest stallions in Australia right now to see that the market values the Classic season the most too.

The five hottest sires right now

The leading five sires at the 2024 Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale by median price were Justify (USA), Zoustar, I Am Invincible, Snitzel, and Extreme Choice.

Justify has 28 stakes winners in his first two American crops including G1 Derby winner City Of Troy, and five in his first two Australian crops led by Group 2 winner Storm Boy who is about to turn three. He isn’t shuttling in 2024. His nine Easter yearlings had a median price of $675,000.

Zoustar’s 44 stakes winners include eight at Group 1-level, and none, so far, have won a juvenile Group 1 race. He has two G1 Coolmore Stud S. winners Sunlight and Ozzmosis, G1 1000 Guineas winner Joliestar, and G1 Flight S. winner Zougotcha. His 28 Easter yearlings had a median price of $550,000.

“He’s obviously a stallion much in the mould of his father, Northern Meteor. His progeny have shown that they run on. He gets plenty of 2-year-old stakes horses who perform on at three and older which puts him in the elite category as a stallion going forward,” said Widden Stud’s Matt Comerford.

“Winning a Coolmore is equally as potent as winning as the Slipper in market terms. Zoustar is very close to breaking the 208 individual winners in a season that I Am Invincible got a couple of years ago. Zoustar sits on 203 with 10 days to go in the season.”

Champion Sire I Am Invincible has 11 crops of racing age, and an impressive 108 stakes winners. This season he sired his first 2-year-old Group 1 winner with G1 Manawatu Sires’ Produce S. winner Move To Strike. Many of his Group 1 winners were group winners at two or Group 1-placed at two, but were best at three. He’s sired the G1 Coolmore Stud S. winner three times with Home Affairs, Brazen Beau, and In Secret. Oohood won the G1 Flight S. and Media Sensation won the NZ G1 1000 Guineas. I Am Invincible had 31 yearlings sell at Inglis Easter with a median price of $512,500.

Four-time Champion Sire Snitzel has 15 crops and 145 stakes winners with a mix of 2-year-old and 3-year-old Group 1 winners among them. He has sired two Golden Slipper winners, Estijaab and Shinzo, as well as G1 Sires’ Produce S. winner Invader. In New Zealand, he’s sired two winners of the G1 Diamond S. - Sword Of State and Summer Passage. But again, it’s his 3-year-olds who have defined him as a brilliant stallion; G1 Cox Plate winner Shamus Award who also won the G1 Australian Guineas, G1 Golden Rose winners In The Congo and Trapeze Artist, G1 Australian Guineas winner Wandjina and G1 1000 Guineas winner Yearning. Snitzel had 37 yearlings sell at Inglis Easter with a median price of $500,000.

Extreme Choice has 12 stakes winners from four small crops and his three Group 1 winners including two at two; Stay Inside won the G1 Golden Slipper and She’s Extreme won the G1 Champagne S. before training on at three to win the G1 Victoria Oaks. With smaller crops, Extreme Choice had 10 yearlings sell at Inglis Easter in 2024 for a median price of $437,500.

What does this cherry picked example tell you?

The market decides what is hot and the hottest stallions in Australia are those who are capable of siring 3-year-old ‘classic’ winners and older sprinters. As much as we love the Slipper and hype up the winners (who have a stellar record as stallions), the yearling market isn’t necessarily solely chasing the elusive Golden Slipper winner, whose last 10 winners have been by Written Tycoon (2), Snitzel (2), Rebel Dane, Extreme Choice, Not A Single Doubt, Sidestep, Manhattan Rain, and Medaglia d’Oro.

“It’s interesting the correlation between the market and 2-year-olds especially as we have barely any 2-year-old runners in this country in comparison to Europe. Their leading 2-year-old sire usually has over 30 winners and we are lucky to have 10. Commerically only 20 per cent of your foal crop will race at two, but over three times as many will race at three. The market might be fickle and at times frustrating, but they are also looking for longevity which the truly elite stallions have,” said Comerford.

“The market, especially for breeders heading into the season, tends to take a shine to horses who have winners at the end of the 2-year-old season as it shows 3-year-old potential, like our Zousain who has had a plethora of placings lately.

“The year after Fireburn won the Slipper, Rebel Dane got a huge run of support from breeders, but it’s short term. Rebel Dane and Gold Standard both produce what everyone says they are trying to produce, but in these years (after the Slipper is forgotten) they are still difficult to sell. If you are looking for breeding a 2-year-old winner, a horse like our two have already produced that. But the elite breeders are looking for longevity, and horses who train on.”

The traditional Classics are the Guineas, Derby and Oaks. Given the results at Inglis Easter, the races that matter to the commercial end of the market are less about the Derby and Oaks and more about the Coolmore Stud S., the Golden Rose, and the various Guineas.

The Coolmore Stud S. has been won by stallions such as Zoustar, Brazen Beau, Northern Meteor, Flying Artie, and recently emerging stallions like Exceedance and Home Affairs. The last 10 winners have been by Zoustar (2), I Am Invincible (3), Exceed And Excel (2), Fastnet Rock, Artie Schiller (USA) and Choisir.

The Golden Rose has an equally impressive record with Zoustar, The Autumn Sun, Astern, and Trapeze Artist all winning it. The last 10 winners have been by Dundeel (NZ), Rubick, Snitzel (2), Written Tycoon, Exceed And Excel, Redoute’s Choice, Medaglia d’Oro (USA), Lonhro, and Street Sense (USA).

Of the Guineas, Australia has four Guineas races at a mile – Caulfield, Australian, Randwick and Thousand – and one at 2000 metres.

Who had Classic winners this season?

Looking at the traditional Classics across Australia and New Zealand, there were 17 races with 15 individual winners, representing 13 different stallions.

Table: Winners of the Classic races in Australia and New Zealand in the 2023/24 racing season

“He’s pretty good, isn’t he? We are very excited about how he’s done this year,” said Arrowfield Stud’s Jon Freyer about The Autumn Sun. “He’s emerged as a potential champion sire and he’s capable of getting obviously a high percentage of these classic horses, and for years to come I’m sure he’s going to be a great influence.

“He won the Caulfield Guineas, Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas, so three classics. His last start (in the Rosehill Guineas) was the only start he had beyond a mile, everything else was at distances shorter than that.

“Of course, he’s out of a Galileo mare from an Aga Khan family, which is traditionally stamina oriented, and we are seeing that influence coming out in the offspring. He’s had a number of stakes winning 2-year-olds and isn’t purely limited to classic horses. The way prizemoney is structured in this country, it’s important to be competitive in races not just up to a mile but beyond a mile.

“Our view with stallions is that you want to get horses that are capable of getting 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds and older horses. Dundeel fits that category, he was a classic winner, he’s had three Group 1 winning 2-year-old colts as well as good older horses. That versatility is so important.

If you have stallions who can only get precocious horses, their offspring’s careers are over so quickly. Horses like Dundeel, Savabeel, So You Think, all get horses who are versatile, capable of training on and running over distance. Look at Savabeel, he quinelled The Everest and got Classic winners like Orchestral. We think The Autumn Sun will end up like that.”

What about the upcoming season?

There are 159 stallions advertised in Australia and New Zealand with fees greater than $10,000 for 2024. Of them, 79 have rising 3-year-olds in the upcoming season. TTR looked at the relative sizes of their 2024/25 crops of 3-year-old to see who has plenty of horses coming through the grades into their Classic season.

The average foal crop for their rising 3-year-olds across these 79 stallions is 87, but ranges from Maurice (Jpn) who didn’t shuttle in 2020 but has one foal born from an overseas covering, and is led by So You Think (NZ) with 179 live foals born in 2021.

Popularity isn’t a measure of future success, but one of past success combined with the prediction of future success. It does tend to be a self-fulfilling prophecy in some ways as more foals equates to more opportunities.

Table: Top 25 stallions by size of 3-year-old crop for the 2024/25 racing season