Handling the wet: The Worthy stallions with Extreme wet track credentials

Cover image courtesy of Arrowfield Stud

The Weather Gods look like smiling on the second day of The Championships at Randwick this weekend, meaning punters aren’t sifting through the wet form like they did last Saturday. But invariably, this time of year brings with it wet tracks, and they tend to stick around through most of the winter.

One of the form sifting factors is looking at the sire and whether their progeny are more likely or not to handle it. It’s hardly a money-making scheme, because it inevitably comes down to the individual horse, but it’s an interesting by-product all the same and there is no doubt some sires’ progeny are more adept in wet ground than others.

TTR delved into wet track credentials back in July of 2019 and at that time, an emerging Zoustar was top of the pops on dry and wet tracks (based on Australia’s Top 20 stallions of the time), when measured by strike rate.

He had an almost 17 per cent wet track strike rate at the time and has continued along a similar path, with his strike rate on tracks rated Soft 7 to Heavy 10 since August 2018 at 15 per cent. In terms of most wet track wins, it ranks him third, behind Snitzel and So You Think (NZ), with his strike rate settling at around the 15 per cent mark.

Interestingly though, as we will delve into more a little later, Zoustar’s elite progeny aren’t hitting the board as strongly on wet ground, with his eight wins in black type races since August 2018 coming at a hit rate of just 8.6 per cent.

Snitzel has long been a mainstay at the top of all stallion measures and it rings true when the wet track filter is applied. He’s had more wet track winners than any other sire since August 2018 and his strike rate of 15.7 per cent on the wet sits comfortably alongside his overall 14 per cent record in that time.

So You Think has risen up the ranks since that 2019 TTR AusNZ analysis and his 230 wet track wins have come at a strike rate of 13.4 per cent, which is superior to his overall 12 per cent record (since August 2018). He’s also provided the third highest number of black type wins on wet ground since 2018, with his progeny winning 16 stakes races at a strike rate of 12 per cent.

Conversely, I Am Invincible’s wet track strike rate (12 per cent) has been inferior to his overall record (15 per cent) in the timeframe we have looked at. And like Zoustar, that wet track strike rate takes a big dip when we isolate black type performance later indicating a clear preference by his progeny for galloping on top of the ground.

Table: Performance of stallions, based on progeny performance on Soft 7 - Heavy 10 rated tracks since August 2018 - most wet track wins

Unheralded strike rate leader

The 2022 Surround S. gave Queensland-based sire Worthy Cause a cherished Group 1 winner courtesy of his daughter Hinged. The fact it came on a Heavy 10-rated track would have come as no surprise to those who had followed Worthy Cause’s progress.

Since August 2018, his progeny have struck at a remarkable 31.4 per cent on wet ground – far eclipsing his overall strike rate of 14 per cent.

The Clear Mountain Fairview-based son of Choisir, who stands at a fee of $5500, only has 83 foals of racing age, but the ones who have made it to the track have tended to find another leg when it gets wet.

Of those stallions who have bigger numbers – and therefore a tougher time to keep the strike rate up – Night Of Thunder (Ire) (23.1 per cent), Hellbent (19.3 per cent), Sacred Falls (NZ) (18.1 per cent), Time For War (17.6 per cent) and Maurice (Jpn) (17.1 per cent) all have numbers that suggest their progeny shouldn’t be dismissed easily on wet ground.

Table: Performance of stallions, based on progeny performance on Soft 7 - Heavy 10 rated tracks - best wet track strike rate, minimum 50 runs

Black type wins

As he does with overall wins, Snitzel heads the list when we narrow it down to stakes races only.

His 22 stakes wins have come at a strike rate of almost 10 per cent on tracks rated Soft 7 or worse.

Sebring sadly left us in 2019, meaning his youngest progeny are now 4-year-olds, but he is still entrenched on the Top Sire charts, sitting 12th this season.

In terms of wet track black type wins in the past five years, he trails only Snitzel, with 16 individual winners of 20 races on Soft 7 to Heavy 10 rated tracks.

Somewhat ironically, his best performer, Fangirl, is not at her best on genuinely wet ground, having been unplaced in all seven attempts on tracks rated Soft 7 or worse.

Setting that aside, Sebring is one stallion punters can put their confidence in, with his near 13 per cent strike rate producing a profit on turnover of better than 35 per cent if you backed every single one of them.

Similarly, the market place has tended to underestimate So You Think’s progeny on wet ground too. His 16 stakes wins places him third on the list since 2018 at a strike rate of 12 per cent, but notably, winning 16 per cent on turnover should you back them all blindly.

I Am Invincible is fourth on the list for most stakes wins on wet ground, with 13 individual runners winning 14 races. So they as a collective are by no means ‘duffers’ but on the whole their 8.8 per cent strike rate is well under ‘Vinny’s’ 15 per cent hit rate for all runners on all ground.

Zoustar has a similar strike rate to I Am Invincible, although he’s still had seven individual runners win eight stakes races on genuinely wet ground in the past five years.

The recently retired Exceed And Excel continues to enjoy success on wet and dry ground, with his tally of 11 wins placing him fifth by overall numbers in the wet and his strike rate of 12.4 per cent also places him at the pointy end of wet track sires.

Table: Performance of stallions, based on progeny performance on Soft 7 - Heavy 10 rated tracks - most stakes wins

Black type strike rate

Extreme Choice has a healthy 17 per cent strike rate for all runners, so his effort to better that in stakes races on wet ground is noteworthy.

No stallion has a better strike rate (based on a minimum of 30 runs) in black type races on wet ground in the past five years than Extreme Choice, who has had five individual progeny win six stakes races at a strike rate of almost 20 per cent.

Extreme Choice’s own sire Not A Single Doubt was long regarded as one of the best wet track sires in this part of the world. The 2019 TTR AusNZ review showed his 14.7 per cent strike on wet tracks to be among the best of all the elite sires in the country.

Having retired from stud duties in 2020 and passing away two years later, Not A Single Doubt still ranks highly here, with his progeny winning 10 stakes races on wet ground at a 12 per cent strike rate since August 2018.

Imported stallions Maurice and Street Boss (USA) feature on the strike rate list, but thanks mostly to their absolute elite performers.

Maurice’s five black type wins place him at 14.7 per cent – second only to Extreme Choice – on our black type list, but notably from just the two individual winners; Hitotsu and the established mudlark Mazu. That said, we noted above his overall strike rate of 1.17 per cent on wet ground from 286 runners gives him a big tick on Soft and Heavy ground.

Street Boss’ progeny won six races on wet ground, but four of those were courtesy of Horse of the Year Anamoe. But like Maurice, his overall wet strike rate of 14 per cent betters his 12 per cent strike rate on all tracks.

As noted above, Sebring’s performance to have a black type strike rate of almost 13 per cent from 155 runs underlines the depth to his wet track progeny.

* Statistics courtesy Daniel O'Sullivan, Betsmart and The Ratings Bureau *

Table: Performance of stallions, based on progeny performance on Soft 7 - Heavy 10 rated tracks - best strike rate in stakes races, minimum 30 runs