Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
With numerous different form lines featuring throughout this year’s edition and the prospects of a heavy track, picking apart the 20 horse field has never been more challenging.
While it appears Sydney's Autumn months are becoming wetter, historical track conditions on Doncaster Mile day reveal a long-standing trend. Eighteen of the past 20 editions occurred on Soft 6 or worse tracks, with eight being rated in the heavy range.
With impending rain forecasted, Randwick's surface is expected to be rain-affected. Notably, all but two competitors have won on soft or worse conditions, leaving Attractable (I Am Invincible) and Berkshire Shadow (GB) (Dark Angel {Ire}) as exceptions.
Attractable | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan
Strong recent form is crucial, as evidenced by seven last-start winners claiming victory in the Doncaster Mile, with 90 per cent finishing no worse than fourth in their key lead-up runs. The G1 George Ryder S. serves as the key lead-up event, with 11 of the last 20 winners emerging from this race.
The George-Ryder Stakes
In the last two decades, the George Ryder S. has been pivotal, producing over half of the eventual winners of the Doncaster Mile. Among this year’s contenders are eight horses from last month's George Ryder S., including three of the top four finishers. This trend is promising for this year's competitors, as none of the previous Doncaster Mile winners failed to finish within the top four in their George Ryder S. lead-up race.
Lady Laguna (Overshare) has shown remarkable improvement this season, starting in Benchmark 88 company before swiftly progressing to claim her first elite victory in the G1 Canterbury S. just three months later. Her performance in the George Ryder S. was commendable, finishing a strong second behind the winner Veight (Grunt {NZ}).
This Saturday's Doncaster Mile will mark her eighth start of the campaign and her greatest test yet. However, she won’t be the first horse to have embarked on an extensive lead-up to the race with previous winners, such as Vision and Power (NZ) (Carnegie {NZ}) in 2009 and Haradasun (Fusaichi Pegasus {USA}) in 2007, racing eight times successively prior to their Doncaster Mile victories.
Lady Laguna | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan
Three-time Group 1 winning colt Militarize (NZ) (Dundeel {NZ}) lines up as one of six chances for Chris Waller. Following a strong third-place finish in the George Ryder S., he will carry three kilograms more than Lady Laguna this time out. Racing in consistent form, he seeks to become the fourth colt in the past two decades to claim victory in the prestigious race.
While unwanted in the market last-start, Golden Mile (Astern) put in a solid showing to finish fourth in the hotly contested field. Carrying equal top weight of 59kg, Golden Mile was the first of the top-weighted horses home in the race. Although he has proven successful three times on soft ground, his sole experience on a heavy track resulted in a distant finish last year where rider Zac Llyod noted the colt's discomfort on the heavy ground.
Gallery: Militarize (NZ) and Golden Mile are set to contest the Doncaster Mile
The Doncaster Prelude
The G3 Doncaster Prelude has seen limited success translating to the main event, posing a challenge for current favourite Another Wil (Street Boss {USA}). Just four of the last 10 Doncaster Prelude winners have backed up in the main event with the best effort being from Weary (Fr) (Astronomer Royal {USA}) who won the 2014 Doncaster Prelude before placing third in the Doncaster Mile a fortnight later.
G3 Doncaster Prelude favourite, Another Wil | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan
While this doesn’t bode particularly well for the Ciaron Maher trained gelding, the progressive 4-year-old's recent dominance commands respect. The least experienced horse in the field, Another Wil had never contested a black-type race before last week but the progressive gelding will carry one of the lightest weights of the field and has never missed a place on heavy ground.
The Coolmore Classic
Five of the last 10 G1 Coolmore Classic winners have gone on to compete in the Doncaster Mile with most achieving midfield results at best. This year, three participants in the Coolmore Classic are tacking on the Doncaster Mile including the winner Zougotcha (Zoustar), runner-up Semana (Winning Rupert) and second emergency of the field Hinged (Worthy Cause). While she is a dual Group 1 winner with an exemplary wet track record, Zougotcha will have to overcome a horror draw in barrier 19 and carry the heaviest weight of any of the females in the field.
The raiders
After securing the Golden Eagle in the spring, Japan's Obamburumai (Jpn) (Discreet Cat {USA}) returns to Sydney aiming to achieve another prestigious victory and become the first Japanese contender to win this esteemed event. Since his Golden Eagle triumph, the Keiji Yoshimura-trained entire has not been seen on the track, but his impressive form heading into the event augurs well for his chances. In the event's five-year history, two previous Golden Eagle winners have participated in the Doncaster Mile. Despite benefiting from several lead-up races, the late I’m Thunderstruck (Shocking) secured second place in the 2022 Doncaster Mile after his breathtaking victory in the Golden Eagle earlier in the season.
With numerous form-lines and trends to consider, predicting the winner of the Doncaster Mile is no easy feat. However, one certainty remains: this year's edition promises to be yet another thrilling showcase of elite thoroughbred talent.
