Road to the Golden Slipper: Which lead-ups fare best?

Cover image courtesy of The Australian Turf Club

There are few races that excite quite like the Golden Slipper. It’s 70 seconds of mayhem, with a whole lot more than $5million prizemoney on the line. This year’s build-up has been bigger than usual, with some speculating it’s the best field we’ve seen for the world’s richest 2-year-old race in many years.

Golden Slipper discussions start as far back as the Breeders’ Plate last spring - if not the early 2-year-old trials in September. The build-up is unique to most big races, as contenders come and go on a weekly basis, with trainers performing a balancing act to have their charges peaking on the third or fourth Saturday in March.

The autumn lead-ups are well documented; starting with the G1 Blue Diamond and G2 Silver Slipper run in different states on the same day, and then continuing with split divisions for the boys and girls in Sydney on each of the three Saturdays that precede Golden Slipper day.

Oddly, the Slipper’s most successful lead-up race of the past 30 years does not have a single runner in 2024.

The G2 Reisling Stakes, won by Erno's Cube (Rubick) earlier this month, has provided us with nine of the past 30 winners; Merlene (Danehill {USA}), Belle Du Jour (Dehere {USA}), Polar Success (Success Express {USA}), Overreach (Exceed And Excel) and Estijaab (Snitzel) all completed the double. Mossfun (Mossman) and She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain) turned seconds in the Reisling into Slipper glitz, while Miss Finland (Redoute’s Chocie) and Forensics (Flying Spur) went from being unplaced in the Reisling to atop the dais on Slipper day.

The Reisling holds a slight edge over the Todman (Group 2) (eight winners) and the G2 Silver Slipper (seven winners) as the lead-up to supply the most winners in the past three decades. With no Reisling runner engaged this year, those other two races can edge a step closer.

But it’s the G2 Skyline Stakes, run a week before the Reisling and Todman, that is most fancied to add another notch on the belt this year.

The Skyline has had five winners emerge from it in the past three decades, with Storm Boy (Justify {USA}) trying to emulate Guineas (Crown Jester), Prowl (Marauding {NZ}) and Dance Hero (Danzero) as horses to do the double since 1997.

Stratum (Redoute’s Choice) and last year’s Slipper winner Shinzo (Snitzel) ran second in the Skyline, before winning the G2 Pago Pago and backing up to win the Golden Slipper seven days later.

The favourite

Storm Boy has been a dominant favourite for the Golden Slipper since he smashed the clock in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on the Gold Coast in January.

Carrying the mantle of race favourite into the Golden Slipper has been a bridge too far for many outstanding 2-year-olds.

In fact, from the past 30 years, just five outright favourites have won the race. That’s much lower than market expectations, which would have forecast around twice as many winners as that.

Sebring (More Than Ready {USA}) was the only public elect to win the race in a 20-year stretch up to 2010. The tide turned for a short while when Sepoy (Elusive Quality {USA}), Overreach and Vancouver (Medaglia D’Oro {USA}) were all successful at sub-$3 quotes in the five year stretch from 2011 to 2015.

But in the past eight years, Farnan (Not A Single Doubt) is the lone favourite to win the race.

Gallery: Some of the favourites who won the G1 Golden Slipper, images courtesy of Sportpix

Storm Boy is set to start one of the shorter priced favourites we’ve seen in the Slipper.

While Vancouver, Overreach and Sepoy were successful at short odds, Earthquake (Exceed And Excel) and Samaready (More Than Ready {USA}) were both rolled at sub-$3 quotes.

On current prices, Storm Boy is set to start the shortest-priced favourite since Alinghi (Encosta De Lago), who had to settle for third to Dance Hero in 2004.

The Magic Millions conundrum

Highly respected ratings analyst Dominic Beirne wrote on “X” in January, that his computer ratings system assessed Storm Boy as the highest rating Magic Millions winner ever, surpassing the mark set in 2004 by Dance Hero.

Storm Boy cemented his place as Golden Slipper favourite with a comfortable win in the G3 Skyline Stakes earlier this month.

Dance Hero won the same race in his preparatory run for the Golden Slipper and three weeks later he became the first horse to complete the MM-Slipper double. He has since been joined by Phelan Ready (More Than Ready {USA}) and Capitalist (Written Tycoon) in achieving that feat.

Interestingly, none of those three horses started favourite in the Golden Slipper. Dance Hero was the most fancied at $5.50. Capitalist (2016) started at $8 and Phelan Ready (2009) as a $26 chance is the equal longest priced winner of the past 30 years, alongside Flying Spur (Danehill {USA}) and Kiamichi (Sidestep).

The Magic Millions has a better record than some of the traditional lead-ups in finding the Slipper winner over the past 30 years, as Belle Du Jour (Dehere {USA}), Ha Ha (Danehill {USA}) and Farnan were all beaten on the Gold Coast before winning the Slipper.

The oddity though is that Magic Millions winners that start favourite in the Golden Slipper have been somewhat cursed to this point.

It goes right back to Bold Promise (Luskin Star), who won both the 2YO MM Classic and the MM Fillies division in 1991 before starting odds-on in the Golden Slipper. She was a touch slow away and never really threatened when unplaced behind Tierce (Victory Prince).

It started a trend that is still unbroken to this day.

A year later, Magic Millions hero Clan O’Sullivan (Zoffany {USA}) also started skinny odds at Rosehill, but was run down by Burst (Marauding {NZ}).

Since then, General Nediym (Nediym {Ire}), Excellerator (Marscay), Assertive Lad (Zeditave), Military Rose (General Nediym), Houtzen (I Am Invincible) and Coolangatta (Written Tycoon) have all failed to complete the double despite being sent out as favourite in the Golden Slipper.

The Slipper winning stable

Storm Boy is out to give Gai Waterhouse an eighth win in the race. She equalled the record of her father TJ Smith when Vancouver became her sixth winner, then edged ahead when she and Adrian Bott combined to land Farnan a winner in 2020.

Waterhouse and Bott have six runners in the field this year, with first emergency Espionage (Zoustar) a potential seventh.

The stable has dominated 2-year-old racing this season and is obviously well placed to claim the Grand Final prize on Saturday.

Blue Diamond runner-up Lady Of Camelot (Written Tycoon) joins Storm Boy as one of just three runners marked under double figures in the race.

She is trying to emulate Flying Spur and Miss Finland as Diamond second placegetters to go one better at Rosehill.

To be ridden by Blake Shinn, Lady Of Camelot was kept ticking over for this race with a blistering barrier trial win at Hawkesbury earlier this month.

The Thoroughbred Report documented the merits of Blue Diamond runners in the Golden Slipper last week, noting “from 24 per cent of runners, Blue Diamond runners have filled 35 per cent of the top four placings in the Golden Slipper since 2012.”

That augurs well for Lady Of Camelot after she was best of the on-pacers in the Blue Diamond.

The form around Lady Of Camelot has also continued to stack up strongly. Manaal (Tassort) was well in her wake before taking out the Gr 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes.

Behind Lady Of Camelot and Hayasugi (Royal Meeting {Ire}) in the Blue Diamond have already emerged two winners; Traffic Warden (Street Boss {USA}) was an impressive winner of the Group 2 VRC Sires, while Dublin Down (Exceedance) and Coleman (Pierata) ran first and third in the Pago Pago Stakes last Saturday.

Second elect

Switzerland (Snitzel) cemented his place as second elect behind Storm Boy with a strong win in the G2 Todman Stakes.

Like the 2012 Todman/Slipper winner Pierro (Lonhro), he is yet to face defeat in three starts and there’s a sense of déjà vu with last year’s winner. And like Shinzo, he’s prepared by Chris Waller and is a son of Snitzel racing in the Coolmore colours.

In all, six horses have completed the Todman-Golden Slipper double, three of them in the past 30 years, with Farnan the most recent.

While favourites have underachieved, horses second and third in the market have enjoyed a good deal of Slipper success in the past decade, with Pierro, Mossfun and Stay Inside (Extreme Choice) all sent out second favourite in their years.

The outliers

Black Opal quinella Holmes A Court (Capitalist) and Fully Lit (Hellbent) are attempting to become the third horses in the past 30 years to win the Slipper without running in one of the more traditional lead-ups.

Every other runner in this year’s Slipper contested one of the aforementioned races.

Gallery: Holmes A Court and Fully Lit are attempting to become the third horses in the past 30 years to win the Slipper without a traditional lead-up

By going to Canberra, Holmes A Court and Fully Lit are trying to emulate Catbird (Danehill {USA}), who won the 1999 Black Opal (and Black Opal Preview the start before that) at his final start before the Slipper.

The only other Golden Slipper winner in the past 30 years not to run in a conventional lead-up was Sebring, who won the race off a 49-day break in the year where equine influenza (2008) totally disrupted the pre-Christmas program.

Meeting market expectations

Few races have an impact on the breeding landscape like the Golden Slipper.

This year’s field is like a ‘who’s who’ of Australian breeding at the moment, with four of the final 17 being $1 million yearlings – Espionage (Zoustar) $1 million, Eneeza (Exceed And Excel) $1.1 million, Switzerland (Snitzel) $1.5 million and Bodyguard (I Am Invincible) $1.6 million.

Gallery: Some of the million-dollar yearlings set to run in the G1 Golden Slipper, images courtesy of Magic Millions

For good measure, Coleman (Pierro) ($550,000), Prost (Snitzel) ($650,000) and Holmes A Court ($850,000) were also yearling sale standouts.

That leaves Storm Boy ($460,000) as just the eighth highest priced runner in the race.

At the other end, the Blue Diamond winner Hayasugi is the cheapest runner in the race, costing just $47,500 as a weanling.

Fully Lit (Hellbent) is the only other runner in the race sold at public auction to be purchases for less than six figures, having cost $60,000.

Traffic Warden, Lady Of Camelot and Manaal were not sold at auction.

Stallion power

Intriguingly, from the past 20 years, the sire of 17 of the Slipper winners could be found at just three Hunter Valley farms.

Arrowfield has been a dominant Golden Slipper force, with eight of the past 20 Golden Slipper winners conceived at the farm.

Starting with Danzero (Dance Hero), Redoute’s Choice (Stratum and Miss Finland) and Flying Spur (Forensics) in four straight years from 2004 to 2007, Arrowfield stallions have continued the success with the now relocated Manhattan Rain (She Will Reign), Farnan (Not A Single Doubt) and Snitzel (Shinzo) all adding to the tally.

Darley has been home to five Slipper siring stallions since 2011, with Elusive Quality (USA) (Sepoy), Lonhro (Pierro), Exceed And Excel (Overreach), Medaglia D’Oro (USA) (Vancouver) and Sidestep (Kiamichi), who had relocated to Queensland’s Telemon Thoroughbreds by the time his daughter won the Slipper.

Gallery: Some of the sires of the Slipper winners

Vinery enjoyed dual success with More Than Ready (USA) via Sebring and Phelan Ready and then again when Mossman’s daughter Mossfun won in 2014.

Stallions from those three farms are represented by Switzerland, Prost (Arrowfield), Traffic Warden, Eneeza (Darley) and Dublin Down (Vinery) on Saturday.

Lady Of Camelot also fits the Arrowfield mould, as she was conceived during Written Tycoon’s single season at John Messara’s Hunter Valley operation.