Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
With a modified program set for Saturday’s bumper Flemington program due to forecasted high temperatures of 39 degrees, it's sure to be a warm one both on and off the track.
All eyes will be on the program’s feature event as sprinting sensation Imperatriz (I Am Invincible) eyes up her 10th Group 1 victory in the G1 Newmarket H. With six fillies and mares set to tackle the race, the 5-year-old will be just the second mare this century to attempt the six-furlong dash carrying 58kg or more.
Imperatriz | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
While it is a tough task for any horse to lump top-weight in a Group 1 handicap, history says it can be done but it generally takes a very good one to do so. Since the 2000 edition of the race, the average weight carried by a Newmarket H. winner is 54kg. Almost 42 per cent of modern-day winners have carried 52kg or less which have typically been 3-year-olds. This year’s edition features just one 3-year-old in triple Group 2-winning colt Cylinder (Exceed and Excel) who has been assigned the field’s lightest weight of 51.5kg.
Under-represented yet overachieving
Since 2000, 373 horses have contested the feature sprinting event with the overwhelming majority of those competitors (77 per cent) being males. This leaves just 85 female starters over the past 23 editions at an average rate of three fillies or mares per year. While they only make up 23 per cent of all starters in the modern-day Newmarket H., fillies and mares are certainly overachievers in the race having won a very respectable eight or 35 per cent of all editions of the race since 2000.
| 1999/00 | Miss Pennymoney | 3 | 53.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2002/03 | Belle Du Jour | 5 | 52.5kg | $10.00 |
| 2004/05 | Alinghi | 3 | 53.5kg | $1.95 |
| 2006/07 | Miss Andretti | 5 | 56kg | $4.00 |
| 2010/11 | Black Caviar | 4 | 58kg | $1.18 |
| 2018/19 | Sunlight | 3 | 50.5kg | $13.00 |
| 2021/22 | Roch 'N' Horse | 5 | 52.5kg | $101.00 |
| 2022/23 | In Secret | 3 | 51.5kg | $6.00 |
Table: Fillies and mare winners of the Newmarket H. 2000 - 2023
Taking a further look into the history of female contenders, the past 23 editions have included at least one female starter in the race with Sunlight’s (Zoustar) year featuring seven fellow fillies and/or mares.
Of females to have won a Newmarket H., half of those were 3-year-old fillies carrying light weights of 53.5kg or less including Miss Pennymoney (Brocco {USA}), Alinghi (Encosta De Lago), Sunlight and last year’s winner In Secret (I Am Invincible).
Of the mares to have won the six-furlong feature, two have won the event carrying light weights of 52.5kg or less in Belle Du Jour (Dehere {USA}), and Roch ‘N’ Horse (Per Incanto {USA}).
This century, only seven mares have contested the race carrying 56kg or more and Black Caviar (Bel Esprit) is the only other mare to line-up with 58kg. While seven mares have contested the edition with ‘heavy’ weights, only three of those started at single-figure odds and all ran credibly. Race favourite Miss Andretti (Ihtiram {Ire}) took out the 2012 edition of the race with 56kg on her back, while Samaready (More Than Ready {USA}) started as a $4 favourite in 2014 and ran a commendable sixth.
History says it’s possible
The heaviest weight Black Caviar carried in a race prior to her Newmarket H. victory was 57.5kg which occurred at just her second start in her dominant Listed Blue Sapphire S. victory as a 2-year-old.
Black Caviar’s Newmarket H. victory occurred at just her 10th start while this year’s headline mare is contesting her first edition of the Flemington feature a more seasoned galloper given it will be her 25th career start.
Black Caviar | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
In what is no doubt another positive, the Mark Walker-trained mare is familiar with carrying large weights having lumped 59kg when taking out last year’s G2 Westbury Classic at Pukekohe. Come Saturday, Imperatriz will give 2.5kg to her nearest rival in fellow mare Bella Nipotina (Pride Of Dubai) and 4-year-old entire Buenos Noches (Supido) which is half-a-kilogram less than what Black Caviar gave to her nearest rival when she won in 2011.
The fact that only one other mare in the last century has attempted the race carrying 58kg or more is a telling sign of the enormous task ahead. However, with an unbeaten record down the Flemington straight, prior experience in carrying heavy weights and a dazzling record at the trip, Imperatriz is well on track to join one of the all-time greats come Saturday afternoon.
