Global stallion value: Part 1

Cover image courtesy of Juddmonte, UK

Focussing on Australasia, Europe and North America, we see that, once again this year, the world’s two most expensive stallions live just 2.5 miles apart in Newmarket, and that Europe and the US dominate the global top 10 leaving room for just one Australian.

A resident of Darley’s Dalham Hall Stud, Dubawi (Ire) sees his fee unchanged for 2024, following another stellar year. However, he now shares his crown as the world’s most expensive stallion with a younger sire who has, by several key measures (as we’ll explore in Part 2), enjoyed an even better year.

Frankel (GB), standing at Juddmonte’s Banstead Manor, has had a fee hike for a third successive year, and will be available - if you have the right mare - for an eye-watering £350,000 (AU$673,000).

With six of his sons set to take up stud duties in 2024, SF Bloodstock’s Tom Ryan was drawn to some past greats such as Storm Cat (USA) and Danzig (USA) as he summed up Frankel’s influence.

“Frankel is a modern day marvel,” Ryan told The Thoroughbred Report from his home in Kentucky. “He's an exception, as he was expected to be, and is hugely deserving of a stud fee that is clearly supported by commercial demand.

“Frankel is the new global gold standard and reminds me very much of Danzig and Storm Cat, both greats of their time. When they achieve that level of success they’re supported by the very best of the best and given opportunities to go from strength to strength.

“If you're going to stand for these stud fees of £350,000, that level of performance almost becomes expected. However, for those two stallions in particular the internal support from Juddmonte and Darley who breed to race creates a scarcity value on the commercial market.”

Put in an Australian context, both Frankel and Dubawi are each more than twice as expensive as our priciest stallion, Yarraman Park’s champion I Am Invincible, who was available this year at a career-high $275,000 (please note, GST has been excluded from Australian stud fees for the purposes of this analysis).

He just makes the cut as the 10th most expensive, a spot filled by Extreme Choice this time last year. A resident of Newgate Farm, Extreme Choice’s fee remained unchanged this year, but inflated fees amongst the global elite saw him leapfrogged. Now at an average of $408,269, the global top 10 are about 9.8 per cent more expensive than last year - outstripping global inflation for 2023.

Table: Global top 10 stallions

The hypotheticals

With five in Europe and four in North America, it’s the second successive year that Australasia has had just one stallion amongst the 10 most expensive. However, just like last year when Gun Runner (USA) was advertised as private but professed to be US$300,000, this year there’s also a notable omission from the top ranks.

Originally announced in October at US$200,000 (AU$308,000), Justify’s (USA) fee was subsequently changed to private by Coolmore America following his sensational pair of Grade 1 juvenile fillies’ titles at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

Now allegedly at US$300,000 (AU$462,000), Justify’s inclusion at that price would place him as the third most-expensive stallion, and leave Australasia without a place in the top 10. Given that Australia in particular hardly lacks for prizemoney, is it a sign that stallion masters here could be more aggressive in their pricing?

“It's not apples to apples really,” suggested Ryan. “It's effectively a closed market down there. Australia has benefited greatly from the shuttle stallions of the past and it's been able to create a very sustainable homegrown product. Now, that means that the domestic horse is the in-vogue horse.

“That changes if you're a rare outlier, like Justify, as I think people can warrant utilising the exceptional just in case he does work.”

Ryan was able to enjoy being uniquely close to a part of racing history through SF’s involvement in Justify’s racing career. And now, for a horse that only raced at three, and exclusively on dirt, Ryan describes his key trait in his ability to produce horses of all types.

“There was always an element to Justify that suggested he could have been a turf horse, he just ended up being an exceptional dirt horse,” he said.

“He's a very unique stallion in the sense that he's the mould of everything. He's capable of producing fast 2-year-olds, long or short, and Classic horses too. What he’s doing is quite extraordinary.

“Put into context, Secretariat is often regarded as the greatest Triple Crown winner of the last 50 years or so, but Justify is certainly on his way to being one of the better stallions to have won the Triple Crown.”

Justify has undoubtedly made an excellent start to life at stud, but his stallion career is in its infancy compared to Frankel and Dubawi. However, should his stud fee continue to rise (and be made public), he might help close the gap between the cost of the elites in the USA and Europe.

This time last year, averaging the 10 most expensive stallions in each region saw those in Europe emerge as 29 per cent more expensive than the USA. This year, that gap has closed to 22 per cent.

Table: Stallions by region

Arbitrage from America

Whether Justify returns to Australia next year remains to be seen, though shuttling the very best, even after they’re proven, is nothing new; think Exceed And Excel, Danehill (USA) and, more recently, Wootton Bassett (GB).

Gallery: Successful stallions who have shuttled

However, increasingly popular with some of Australasia’s better-resourced breeders is another method of utilising international talent. As Ryan explained, bringing American mares to Australia is a regular component of SF Bloodstock’s investing Down Under - and sometimes it’s as much of a sure thing as you can get with horses.

“In some cases we see an arbitrage where a filly is more valuable in Australia than in America,” he said.

“We've sourced them aggressively over the last five or six years, and I expect to see more results out of American mares well into the future in Australia. I think that the sharp Australian outfits are shopping the American market now.

“American horses have an abundance of speed, because of the way American races are run; when the gate opens, they don’t go in rank and file two-by-two, it's pretty much a race for the first turn.

“That carries a long way into Australian breeding, where speed is important, and I think the cross between the American bloodlines and the Australian bloodlines is a very healthy one.”

The formula has certainly worked for SF within the gates of Newgate Farm in recent years - both Champion First Season Sire Russian Revolution and the younger Wild Ruler are by Snitzel and out of speedy, imported American mares.

With the prospect of visiting one of Australia’s best, such as Snitzel, significantly cheaper than a stallion of comparable rank in America, it’s little surprise that this appears to be a growing trend.

Read tomorrow’s TTR AusNZ for Part 2.