Every step of the way from breeding through to the morning of each race, the life of a thoroughbred is all about meticulous planning and preparation and a mountain of effort.
But as soon as those horses set foot on a racetrack, everything is taken out of the hands of those hard-working human connections. Racing is ruled by a stack of variables that are beyond anyone’s control – not least of which is weather and track conditions.
A horse’s build-up to a certain race could have been perfect, only for an untimely downpour in the last 24 hours to wash everything away. That same rain could be exactly what another horse needed to put his or her best foot forward.
Best suited progeny
So, when it comes to varying track conditions, which sires’ progeny are the best suited?
The table present the overall win per start career statistics for the progeny of stallions ranked in Australia’s top 20 for this season. The table is ordered by statistics on tracks that are rated good, with the second column showing statistics on wet tracks.
| Zoustar | 20.56% | 16.95% |
| I Am Invincible | 18.16% | 13.15% |
| All Too Hard | 15.20% | 12.91% |
| Redoute's Choice | 14.96% | 12.25% |
| Snitzel | 14.72% | 15.78% |
| Lope de Vega | 14.47% | 14.86% |
| Written Tycoon | 14.21% | 11.28% |
| Pierro | 14.09% | 15.11% |
| Nicconi | 13.95% | 13.79% |
| Fastnet Rock | 13.62% | 12.56% |
| Smart Missile | 13.49% | 12.58% |
| Exceed and Excel | 13.09% | 11.78% |
| Street Cry | 12.97% | 12.98% |
| So You Think | 12.96% | 14.79% |
| Sebring | 12.30% | 12.32% |
| Lonhro | 12.11% | 13.53% |
| Teofilo | 11.98% | 13.47% |
| High Chaparral | 11.93% | 12.93% |
| Not a Single Doubt | 11.79% | 14.69% |
| Star Witness | 11.00% | 11.70% |
Albeit with a smaller sample size at this early stage of his career, young gun Zoustar (Northern Meteor) tops both of our tables. His progeny have won 102 races from 496 starts on good tracks, which is 20.56%, and 40 out of 236 on soft or heavy – 16.95%.
Among his best performers, star filly Sunlight has won three Group 1 races, all on good tracks, while Lean Mean Machine won the G2 Run to the Rose on a Heavy 8 and Zousain’s G2 Champagne Classic victory came on a Soft 5.
Lean Mean Machine won the G2 Run To The Rose on a Heavy 8
Snitzel (Redoute’s Choice) is the reigning Australian champion sire, and he once again carries an unassailable lead of more than $6 million in prize-money into the last couple of weeks of this season.
The Arrowfield super-sire has developed a reputation for success on wet ground as well as dry, and his statistics back that up.
On good tracks, Snitzel’s progeny have recorded 1175 victories from 7983 starts – a winning percentage of 14.71%. On slow or heavy tracks, his progeny return a slightly higher percentage of 15.78% with 466 wins from 2954 starts.
"The Arrowfield super-sire has developed a reputation for success on wet ground as well as dry, and his statistics back that up." - Richard Edmunds
His elite progeny have demonstrated that versatility with their performances on the biggest stage. His sons Redzel and Trapeze Artist combined for a famous quinella in last year’s $13 million Everest on a Heavy 9 track, while Group 1 performances have ranged from Shamus Award’s Cox Plate and Snitzerland’s Lightning Stakes on good tracks through to Russian Revolution’s Galaxy H. on a Heavy 10.
Redzel and Trapeze Artist quinella'd the Everest in 2018 for Snitzel on a Heavy 9
Lope de Vega (Ire) (Shamardal {USA}) also features prominently on both tables. His progeny have won 443 races from 3061 starts on good tracks (14.47%), and 219 from 1474 on soft or heavy (14.86%).
His two Australian Group 1 winners have both been equally effective on dry and wet ground. Santa Ana Lane has won a VRC Sprint Classic on a Good 3, a Goodwood H. on a Soft 6, a T. J. Smith Stakes on a Soft 7 and a Stradbroke H. on a Heavy 8. Vega Magic won a Goodwood H. on a Good 4 and a Memsie S. on a Good 3, but also scored at stakes level on a Soft 6.
A model of consistency
The great Street Cry (Ire) (Machiavellian {USA}) is a model of consistency across differing track conditions. His success rate on a good track is 12.97% (1084 wins from 8357 starts), and on soft and heavy it is almost identical at 12.98% (401 wins from 3090 starts).
"The great Street Cry is a model of consistency across differing track conditions." - Richard Edmunds
The perfect example is his astonishing daughter Winx. While 28 of her 37 victories came on good tracks, including three of her unprecedented four Cox Plates, she was also unbeaten in four starts on heavy ground. Three of those were at Group 1 level – the Chipping Norton S. and two editions of the George Ryder S.
Winx won the G1 George Ryder S. twice on heavy tracks
Meanwhile, these statistics tell a different story with the second-placed sire on this season’s premiership, I Am Invincible (Invincible Spirit {Ire}).
The Yarraman Park stallion has soared to a $247,500 service fee this season after beginning at just $11,000.
That is all down to the outstanding racetrack success of his progeny, who boast a particularly impressive percentage of 18.16% on good tracks – 844 wins from 4648 starts. That puts him in second place on the table for performance on good tracks, behind only Zoustar.
However, on soft and heavy tracks, that percentage drops markedly to 13.15% – 247 wins from 1871 starts. All of the 10 Group 1 victories recorded by I Am Invincible’s progeny to date, from the likes of Brazen Beau, Viddora, I Am A Star, recent Tatt’s Tiara heroine Invincibella and top New Zealand filly Media Sensation, have come on good tracks.
All Too Hard (Casino Prince) is another whose progeny clearly favour good tracks. He ranks third on that surface with a success rate of 15.2%, but that drops to 12.91% on soft or heavy ground.
In contrast, the progeny of some other leading sires appear to take a step forward when tracks are rain-affected.
Wet-track specialists
Not a Single Doubt (Redoute’s Choice) is a major example. His progeny have a success rate of 11.79% on good tracks, placing him near the bottom of this season’s top 20 sires in Australia. But there is a sharp increase to 14.69% when the tracks are soft or heavy, ranking him sixth.
Not A Single Doubt ranks sixth as a sire of winners on soft or heavy tracks
However, his top progeny have bucked that trend. Keneda’s two Group 1 wins this season have both come on good tracks, and the likes of Extreme Choice, Mighty Boss, Miracles of Life and Single Gaze have all scored elite wins on dry ground. Clearly Innocent is an exception, winning the Kingsford Smith Cup on a Heavy 8.
Pierro and his sire Lonhro have produced progeny who can handle slow or heavy ground.
Pierro's standout progeny have shown immense versatility. Pierata placed in the G1 VRC Sprint Classic on a Good 3 and the G1 Galaxy H. on a Heavy 8 before a well-deserved breakthrough victory in the G1 All Aged S. on a Good 4. The track was rated good when Levendi won the Australian Derby, and when Pinot won the VRC Oaks. Brilliant Perth filly Arcadia Queen has raced exclusively on dry ground.
So You Think (NZ) (High Chaparral {Ire}) has a success rate of 12.96% on dry tracks, which increases to 14.79% on slow or heavy.
Major wins by his progeny include Inference in the G1 Randwick Guineas on a Heavy 10, D’Argento in the Rosehill Guineas on a Soft 6, Sopressa in the Schweppes Oaks on a Soft 5, and La Bella Diosa (NZ) in the G2 Surround S. on a Heavy 9. However, Nakeeta Jane won the Surround S., now G1, on a Good 4.
Inference won the G1 Randwick Guineas on a Heavy 10 for So You Think (NZ)
The progeny of Teofilo (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) have won 11.98% of their races on good tracks, but 13.47% on slow and heavy.
But again his star progeny are versatile, with cult hero Happy Clapper winning multiple Group 1 races on good tracks and finishing second in the Doncaster on a Heavy 8. Humidor (NZ) is another multiple Group 1 winner on dry ground, while his major placings include The BMW on a Heavy 9.
Kermadec (NZ) won the Doncaster and the George Main S. on soft tracks, but also placed in multiple Group 1 races on top of the ground. Palentino and Sonntag were Group 1 winners on good tracks.
